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As we move into the new financial year, handl Group sets ambitious growth targets for each of the businesses in our group. But while we’re informed by last year’s performance and market trends, we also have to keep a close eye on the wider economy.
There are currently two wider trends that we need to be aware of – ongoing international instability and the UK government’s reaction to it.
We’ve taken the temperature around the group to see how our leaders and brands view the prospects for the coming year based on the government’s current approach.
Our instant reactions
It’s fair to say that reactions to the recent spring statement weren’t overly positive, with a broad consensus within the group that there’s a lack of real long-term planning on display:
It feels like a bunch of knee-jerk reactions, trying to mask the bigger issues in the budget. What’s concerning is that there doesn’t seem to be any real long-term strategy in place. The projections for improvement seem too conveniently timed, almost like a political play rather than an economic reality. If this were a business case, I wouldn’t be putting my money behind it.
Dan Franklin – Chief Strategy Officer
Health and Wellbeing divisional MD Margaret McNab offered an explanation for the short-term thinking on display, holding up the statement as proof that the UK remains “at the mercy of world events,” and calling for a focus on growth and innovation by working hand-in-hand with business. Where there is room for positivity, Margaret’s unconvinced that the statement shows how any projected targets will be hit:
I welcome the focus on improving the productivity and efficiency of the public sector. To do this well at pace depends on significant investment in technology and change programmes to support the staff to adjust and pivot to new ways of working. This has not been defined.
Margaret McNab – Divisional Managing Director
This vagueness in public sector reform plans has also been noted by our Expert Witness and Assessment division heads:
The Spring Budget Report does not specifically mention the impact of social care in detail. However, it highlights overall spending decisions and changes in welfare spending, which hint at broader impacts on public services, including social care. Notably, the statement discusses changes to the welfare system, including both funding cuts and budget increases, which could indirectly affect social care services, particularly concerning welfare provisions for vulnerable populations.
Caroline Arrowsmith – Divisional Commercial Director
Positives and negatives
As the instant reactions show, there’s more of a negative feeling about the government’s plans than a positive one.
Margaret believes that the decidedly bureaucratic proposals don’t match the “going further, faster” narrative, and consistently talking down the economy has eroded trust amongst business leaders at a time when both innovation and imagination are needed.
Dan also flags the “going further, faster” narrative as a potential issue, especially as it doesn’t reflect a solid foundation for any real policy. Confidence in the government’s handling of the economy is low, and that’ll work as a check on any much needed momentum in the economy.
Some of the most damning critique comes from the Expert Witness division, where brands like ACCA see first-hand the effects of social welfare cuts, as Caroline explains:
This is brewing the perfect storm. It’s sad to say but when there are direct cuts to welfare and education on budgeting etc, often there is an increase of children and adults becoming vulnerable. There is going to be no provision to meet the increase in demand of interventions required.
Proposed £1.1bn cuts on social care don’t match up with the real need for services.
And what about room for optimism?
There’s at least some stability and the budget is balanced, but as Margaret points out, the only real upside is that world events such as the US’ current approach to tariffs and trade may jolt the government into showing some more ambition.
How will handl be affected as a group?
As a company used to dealing with rapid change, handl Group is well placed to keep providing the high quality services our brands are known for.
Our focus on people and technology mean we’ll confidently adapt to meet evolving needs as policy continues to evolve.
The changes to Employer’s National Insurance will have an impact across our portfolio, but many of handl’s brands were created to support several areas affected by the proposed changes in the spring statement. Margaret is particularly enthusiastic about leading on that front:
It hasn’t affected our ability to collaborate for innovation and improvements with our clients and customers. There are many opportunities to support the objectives in the Spring statement and provide thought leadership and innovation for the agenda.
We are in a very good position to positively support the proposed welfare reforms through PFAS and EQL, and we’ve proven this over recent years.
What about individual businesses?
The biggest impacts will be felt by companies working directly with the public sector – with an increased need for services provided by brands like ACCA and Foresight:
Local Authorities need to make £1.1 billion in savings. In our experience, they don’t always have the infrastructure to address the efficiency savings they need to make. For example, in one local authority we have worked with, we identified £1.1million of savings in supporting living arrangements, however the Local Authority were unable to enact many of them as their systems were so out of date, with incorrectly stored information, and they couldn’t act quickly enough.
With savings a priority, the services ACCA and others provide will be in high demand. And it’s a similar situation for Foresight, where a levelling off in legal aid spend combined with elongated trial dates and prison overcrowding will mean greater efficiencies are no longer optional.
When expert witnesses such as those used by Foresight can become involved early, legal cases speed up, meaning there’s an opportunity to become even more valuable to our partners and customers.
Finally – what would we do differently if we were strategising about the UK economy?
Again, there’s a consensus around the group. Innovate. Adopt new technology, and focus on stimulating the economy.
Fewer spending commitments, develop a clear plan and be ready to adapt to whatever new challenges the fast-changing geopolitical climate throws up next.
An attitude a little more like handl Group’s, where there’s a clear plan delivered with confidence towards an end goal of consistent growth might be just what the UK needs to genuinely work to improve the future.
